This is the first entry for the thread on Hurricane SANDY weather.

DATE: 10/24/2012

TO: All Connecticut SKYWARN Coordinators and Spotters/ARES Leadership and
members

FROM: Steve Williams K1SJW CT ARES SKYWARN DEC

SUBJECT: Hurricane Sandy

A late season tropical cyclone has developed in the Caribbean. This system could possibly have an effect on New England by Monday if computer forecast models indicating this verify as we go into the weekend.

We are currently 5 days away from any possible impacts from this system. Some of the computer forecast models are showing the system coming up the Atlantic seaboard with
possible impacts anywhere from the Mid Atlantic up to Maine. However this is not written in stone at this time. The critical time frame for the computer forecast models will be on Saturday. The majority of models will either come into agreement with the others concerning an impact somewhere along the eastern seaboard or will forecast the storm to remain off shore with little or no impact to our region.

If the worst case scenario were to verify with a direct impact on Connecticut we will experience high winds that could bring down trees limbs and power lines, significant rainfall that could lead to inland flooding, and coastal flooding. Basically similar conditions to what we experienced last year with Tropical Storm Irene. However if the system makes landfall somewhere else the impacts to our state could be less than for a direct hit.

For the time being I would encourage everyone to maintain situational awareness of this system and to think about what lessons you may have learned from Irene last year and things you might do differently if faced with a similar situation. Now might be a good time to consider what preparations you would like to make if the worst case scenario verifies.

I encourage everyone to monitor NHC and NWS forecasts and discussions regarding Hurricane Sandy over the next several days.

Steve Williams K1SJW
ARRL CT Section ARES DEC SKYWARN
Home 860-379-8392
Cell 860-601-3323
Email address [email protected]

10/24/2012
Here is the latest overlay graph of the major computer models.
The BLACK line indicates the average track of all of the models.
- LOOK WHERE IT HITS!!! (New Haven?)

LINK
sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/2160...6196_640989229_n.jpg

10/25/12
Just released:
The 11AM projected hurricane track from the National Hurricane Center

10/25/12
Current projections as to path, timing, and intensity:

10/25/12 @ 1:20 pm

Well... just look at this projection!
The way I see it, based on this chart, the folks between New Haven and Rhode Island are going to get the brunt of it.

Potential for Coastal Storm
Sunday – Tuesday, October 28-30

Weather Briefing
Prepared 11:00 am EDT Thursday, October 25, 2012
Presented by
Gary Conte – Warning Coordination Meteorologist
NOAA’s National Weather Service
New York, NY Forecast Office

Hello to all;
Sandy is Stronger than Predicted – CAT 2 (at this time).

Timing of Sandy:
Late Sunday to late Tuesday.

Rain:
Rain 3 to 9 inches.

Wind:
Damaging wind.!!

Two systems come together, (cold front and Sandy) .. Sandy may get much bigger and much stronger.!!

Speed:
Forward speed 25 knots.

Monday:
- Flooding and Significant tidal flooding.!!
- Storm drains covered with leaves (street flooding).!!
- Trees will come down, many people with no power.!!

Or, Sandy might miss us.

KD1LD
A. D.E.C. , CT ARES-SKYWARN